Letter: More thoughts on global warming: Round two (Printed Feb. 1, 2008)
Editor:
I’m amused by a writer’s concern in last week’s Post who’s frightened by his observed trend in the debate over climate change of the belief that “he who screams the loudest must be correct.” Is he suggesting that a skeptical view of human influences on global temperatures is screaming? The writer might consider all the news accounts and video footage when the environmental activist constituency goes on the march. Seems to me there’s a whole lot of screaming going on there. I don’t believe there’s any such footage of the likes of Dr. Roy Spencer or Professor John Christie, two of the many esteemed scientific experts who remain unconvinced that mankind is the cause of climate fluctuations.
While I can’t claim to have a PhD, I am a GWCRaT – a Guy Who Can Read and Think, and I’ve done a fair amount of both on this subject. So let’s take it from the top and as simply and objectively as possible. Is the earth experiencing climate change?…yes. Can changes in mankind’s behavior “stop” climate change…no, say those more profoundly knowledgeable than am I.
Data does indeed support that during the past 3,000 years, Earth’s average temperature has varied within a range of about 3 degrees Celsius. It is currently increasing as atmospheric and surface temperatures have been recovering from an unusually cold period between two and five hundred years ago known as the Little Ice Age. Before this, about 1,000 years ago, a period of warmer temperatures was experienced that is referred to as the Medieval Climate Optimum, or Medieval Warm Period. During this time, agriculture was practiced in regions that presently are considered too cold for farming. Greenland was colonized during this period and subsequently abandoned at the onset of colder temperatures. Let’s not forget too that thousands of years ago the Earth’s surface was covered significantly more by ice and snow that melted off naturally over the millennia.
So for the past few centuries, Earth’s temperatures have been gradually recovering without SUV’s, jet airplanes or other hydrocarbon emissions from mankind. It’s pretty simple to this point…the Earth has experienced cyclical temperature fluctuations, in both directions, without any human influence. It’s likely that it always will.
In considering whether climate fluctuations can be reversed (I believe the mantra is “Stop Global Warming”) by sociological or technological modifications in human behavior, one must first accept the notion that mankind’s existence has a direct and ultimate causal relationship with climate change. There is a multitude of research to consider on this point but the aim is to keep it simple for now. Glacial retreat and sea level increase is often displayed as a very visible and graphic example of man’s influences on global temperatures. The pictures are purposefully dramatic. However, research data shows that the trend for glacial shortening and sea level increase began in about 1800, more than a century before the 60-year, six-fold increase in hydrocarbon use that commenced around the 1940’s post WWII economic boom. More importantly though is the rates of retreat and sea level increases have remained constant during that period.
The significant increase in the use of hydrocarbons by man over the last 60 years has not influenced the rate of glacial melt or sea level increase in any measurable manner. Far from a subjective conclusion, the empirical evidence of actual measurements of temperature and climate shows no man-made warming trend.
Factually, during four of the seven decades since 1940 when average CO2 levels steadily increased, US average temperatures were actually declining. In the absence of evidence for man-made warming, it’s quite the stretch to maintain then that man must “stop global warming”. Or that we can for that matter.
The Earth has been much warmer during the last 3,000 years, and beyond, without the type of catastrophic effects that the climate change activists would have you think will take place if we don’t “stop global warming”. We are, after all, still here. But don’t take my word for it, I’m just an average guy who can read and think.
Jeff Cole
Kennebunk
I’m amused by a writer’s concern in last week’s Post who’s frightened by his observed trend in the debate over climate change of the belief that “he who screams the loudest must be correct.” Is he suggesting that a skeptical view of human influences on global temperatures is screaming? The writer might consider all the news accounts and video footage when the environmental activist constituency goes on the march. Seems to me there’s a whole lot of screaming going on there. I don’t believe there’s any such footage of the likes of Dr. Roy Spencer or Professor John Christie, two of the many esteemed scientific experts who remain unconvinced that mankind is the cause of climate fluctuations.
While I can’t claim to have a PhD, I am a GWCRaT – a Guy Who Can Read and Think, and I’ve done a fair amount of both on this subject. So let’s take it from the top and as simply and objectively as possible. Is the earth experiencing climate change?…yes. Can changes in mankind’s behavior “stop” climate change…no, say those more profoundly knowledgeable than am I.
Data does indeed support that during the past 3,000 years, Earth’s average temperature has varied within a range of about 3 degrees Celsius. It is currently increasing as atmospheric and surface temperatures have been recovering from an unusually cold period between two and five hundred years ago known as the Little Ice Age. Before this, about 1,000 years ago, a period of warmer temperatures was experienced that is referred to as the Medieval Climate Optimum, or Medieval Warm Period. During this time, agriculture was practiced in regions that presently are considered too cold for farming. Greenland was colonized during this period and subsequently abandoned at the onset of colder temperatures. Let’s not forget too that thousands of years ago the Earth’s surface was covered significantly more by ice and snow that melted off naturally over the millennia.
So for the past few centuries, Earth’s temperatures have been gradually recovering without SUV’s, jet airplanes or other hydrocarbon emissions from mankind. It’s pretty simple to this point…the Earth has experienced cyclical temperature fluctuations, in both directions, without any human influence. It’s likely that it always will.
In considering whether climate fluctuations can be reversed (I believe the mantra is “Stop Global Warming”) by sociological or technological modifications in human behavior, one must first accept the notion that mankind’s existence has a direct and ultimate causal relationship with climate change. There is a multitude of research to consider on this point but the aim is to keep it simple for now. Glacial retreat and sea level increase is often displayed as a very visible and graphic example of man’s influences on global temperatures. The pictures are purposefully dramatic. However, research data shows that the trend for glacial shortening and sea level increase began in about 1800, more than a century before the 60-year, six-fold increase in hydrocarbon use that commenced around the 1940’s post WWII economic boom. More importantly though is the rates of retreat and sea level increases have remained constant during that period.
The significant increase in the use of hydrocarbons by man over the last 60 years has not influenced the rate of glacial melt or sea level increase in any measurable manner. Far from a subjective conclusion, the empirical evidence of actual measurements of temperature and climate shows no man-made warming trend.
Factually, during four of the seven decades since 1940 when average CO2 levels steadily increased, US average temperatures were actually declining. In the absence of evidence for man-made warming, it’s quite the stretch to maintain then that man must “stop global warming”. Or that we can for that matter.
The Earth has been much warmer during the last 3,000 years, and beyond, without the type of catastrophic effects that the climate change activists would have you think will take place if we don’t “stop global warming”. We are, after all, still here. But don’t take my word for it, I’m just an average guy who can read and think.
Jeff Cole
Kennebunk
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